New government data reveals that Australia’s population growth has slowed to a near three-year low, with net migration coming in significantly lower than forecasts. The numbers contradict recent protest claims that immigration is “surging out of control,” as the country adds fewer residents than previously seen.

This trend coincides with signs of weakening in the national job market, raising new questions about the economy’s direction.

Migration Figures Show a Clear Downturn

Official figures for the 12 months ending March show that Australia’s population grew by 1.56%, adding 423,400 residents to reach a total of 27.5 million. This slowdown is primarily due to a drop in net overseas migration.

• Migration Lower Than Forecast: Net migration was 17,000 people lower than the government had forecast for the current financial year.
• Significant Decline: Net overseas migration for the past year was 315,900, a notable decrease from the peak of 555,798 recorded in the September quarter of 2023.
• Seasonal Fluctuations: While quarterly migration figures showed a seasonal increase of 110,100 people, this number was still well below the figures from the same period in 2023 and 2024.

Job Market Shows Signs of Weakness

While the overall unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% in August, the underlying data points to a cooling labor market.

• Loss of Full-Time Jobs: The country lost 41,000 full-time positions in August.
• Steady Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate remained stable only due to a drop in the number of people looking for work and an increase in part-time employment.
• Slow Job Creation: Since April, a total of only 24,400 jobs have been added across the country.

Employment trends varied by state, with New South Wales and Western Australia shedding workers while Victoria saw employment rise to an all-time high.

Economic Implications and Outlook

Economists are now watching the combined effects of slowing population growth and a weakening job market.

• Risk to Economic Recovery: A quick slowdown in migration could pose a risk to the expected economic recovery, according to experts.
• Key Source of Labor: International students, a key component of migration, are also a crucial source of labor supply.
• Central Bank’s Dilemma: The Reserve Bank has been cautious about cutting interest rates due to inflation concerns. However, the slowing job market and falling migration figures could add pressure for future rate reductions.

The new data presents a different picture from the public perception of an immigration surge, suggesting that government policies to curb population growth are taking effect, with potential ripple effects on the national economy.