Australia is projected to add more than 1.36 million people between 2025–26 and 2029–30, according to official population projections published through Australia’s Treasury and Centre for Population.

The latest projections show that Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia will account for the overwhelming majority of Australia’s population expansion, driven by a combination of skilled migration, interstate movement, labour demand, and natural increase.

Based on official projections, Australia’s population is expected to grow from approximately 27.97 million in 2025–26 to around 29.33 million by 2029–30; an increase of roughly 1.36 million people within four years.

For migrants, investors, employers, and international students, these figures provide important insight into where economic activity, infrastructure investment, and employment demand are likely to concentrate throughout the decade.

Victoria Expected to Add the Largest Number of Residents

Victoria is projected to record the largest numerical population increase of any Australian state over the next four years.

The state’s population is forecast to rise from 7,172,600 in 2025–26 to 7,578,700 by 2029–30, representing an increase of 406,100 people or 5.66 per cent growth.

This means Victoria alone is expected to account for nearly one-third of Australia’s total projected population increase.

Melbourne’s long-term appeal for skilled migrants, international students, and professionals continues to support the state’s growth outlook despite recent housing affordability concerns and slowing property market conditions.

Victoria’s economy remains heavily diversified across education, healthcare, technology, construction, professional services, and advanced manufacturing. As a result, migration is likely to remain a critical driver of workforce supply and economic expansion.

New South Wales Will Still Add More Than 360,000 People

New South Wales is projected to remain Australia’s most populous state, growing from 8,690,000 people to 9,053,000 by 2029–30. That represents an increase of 363,000 residents over four years, equivalent to 4.18 per cent growth.

Although NSW is expected to continue attracting the country’s largest share of overseas migrants, population growth is forecast to be slower than in Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia.

One major reason is interstate migration patterns. Rising living costs and housing affordability pressures in Sydney have pushed many residents toward Queensland, regional NSW, and other states offering lower property prices and lifestyle advantages.

Even so, Sydney remains Australia’s largest economic hub and continues attracting global talent across finance, technology, healthcare, engineering, and corporate services.

Queensland Continues Its Strong Population Expansion

Queensland is projected to add another 313,700 residents between 2025–26 and 2029–30. The state’s population is forecast to rise from 5,752,700 to 6,066,400, representing growth of 5.45 per cent.

Queensland’s population boom continues to be driven by both overseas migration and strong interstate migration from southern states.

Cities such as Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Sunshine Coast have become increasingly attractive for professionals and families seeking more affordable housing, lifestyle advantages, and employment opportunities outside Sydney and Melbourne.

Infrastructure projects, Olympic-related investment ahead of Brisbane 2032, healthcare expansion, and construction demand are also expected to strengthen Queensland’s labour market over the next decade.

Western Australia Expected to Record the Fastest Growth Rate

Western Australia is forecast to record the highest population growth rate in Australia. The state’s population is projected to grow from 3,097,800 in 2025–26 to 3,278,900 by 2029–30.

That increase of 181,100 people represents a growth of 5.85 per cent, the strongest percentage increase nationally. Western Australia’s economic strength continues to be heavily supported by mining, resources, infrastructure, energy, and construction sectors.

Perth has increasingly become a destination for skilled workers due to strong employment opportunities and comparatively better housing affordability compared to Sydney and Melbourne.

Demand for engineers, tradespeople, healthcare professionals, mining specialists, and technical workers is expected to remain strong throughout the decade.

South Australia and Tasmania Expected to See Slower Growth

South Australia is projected to add 53,400 people over the next four years, with its population rising from 1,918,300 to 1,971,700. This represents moderate growth of 2.78 per cent. 

Although Adelaide has experienced strong housing price growth in recent years, the state’s overall population expansion remains slower than that of the larger eastern states.

Tasmania is expected to record the slowest growth nationally. The state’s population is forecast to rise from 576,900 to 584,200 by 2029–30; an increase of just 7,300 people or 1.27 per cent.

Tasmania’s smaller labour market, lower migration intake, and demographic structure continue to limit long-term population growth compared to mainland Australia.

Northern Territory and ACT Show Moderate Expansion

The Northern Territory is projected to grow from 267,500 people to 276,500 by 2029–30. That increase of 9,000 residents represents a growth of 3.36 per cent.

Meanwhile, the Australian Capital Territory is forecast to rise from 491,100 to 517,700 residents, an increase of 26,600 people or 5.42 per cent growth.

Canberra’s stable public-sector economy, professional workforce, and relatively high income levels continue to support steady population expansion.

What These Population Trends Mean for Skilled Migrants

Australia’s population projections reinforce a broader economic reality: the country will continue relying heavily on migration and skilled labour to support long-term economic growth. 

States experiencing stronger growth are also likely to see higher infrastructure spending, increased housing demand, greater labour shortages, and stronger employer demand for skilled workers.

For migration applicants, this could translate into stronger opportunities in sectors such as healthcare, engineering, construction,  IT, education, logistics, and trades.

Regional migration pathways may also become increasingly important as governments attempt to distribute population growth more evenly outside major metropolitan centres.

Australia Population Growth 2030: Final Outlook

Australia’s projected addition of approximately 1.36 million people by 2029–30 highlights how central migration and demographic growth remain to the country’s economic strategy.

Victoria is expected to lead the nation in total population growth, while Western Australia is forecast to record the fastest growth rate overall.

Queensland continues benefiting from interstate migration momentum, while New South Wales remains Australia’s dominant population and economic centre despite slower relative growth.

At the same time, smaller states and territories are expected to experience more moderate expansion.

For skilled professionals, business investors, and future migrants, the projections offer a clear indication of where future workforce demand, infrastructure development, and economic opportunities are likely to emerge across Australia over the next decade.

Disclaimer: All information is provided as a general guide only and does not constitute legal advice. It is important to note that immigration policies and operational practices are subject to sudden and unexpected changes.